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Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Is a Really Big War Coming? Some Folks Say You Can Book It

5:55 PM

It's one thing when a columnist punches a point to maybe make another point; it's also another thing when a columnist hammers an issue because he or she has done the homework and is hell-bent to explain it to you. It is an altogether different thing, however, when a Senior Fellow of Foreign Policy Studies with The Brookings Institution goes to nailing in the same spot as the columnist. That is unless the reader is from the right, of course, but very few folks of that persuasion read these pages--other than most members of my family, but they wrote me off as a heretical aberration to be ashamed of a long time ago.

Amidst all of the chatter/noise on Iran and its nuclear ambitions filling the media spectrum, two pieces stayed in my mind and gut long enough that I believe I must share them with you. Both of them are a number of days old, which in today's news cycle is ancient history. Both of them could also just as well be written tomorrow morning.

First up is a column from The Los Angeles Times, which I excerpt and then link to.

Rosa Brooks:
War clouds
Russia's dangerous double game with Israel and Iran could easily spark a Middle East conflict, with dire consequences for the U.S.
April 28, 2006

LET ME TELL YOU about the next war.

It will start sooner than you think -- sometime between now and September. And it will be precipitated by the $700-million Russian deal this week to sell Tor air defense missile systems to Iran.

When the war begins, it will be between Iran and Israel. Before it ends, though, it may set the whole of the Middle East on fire, pulling in the United States, leaving a legacy of instability that will last for generations and permanently ending a century of American supremacy.

Despite the high stakes, the Bush administration seems barely to have noticed the danger posed by the Russian missile sale. But the signs are there, for those inclined to read them.

Continue reading at The Los Angeles Times.

The next piece is from The Brookings Institution, and is far more reserved and analytical, but no less scary since it postulates that Bush will act responsibly in the end.

Is War with Iran Inevitable?

NRC Handelsblad, April 21, 2006

Ivo H. Daalder, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies

There appears to be an emerging consensus in Washington and around the world, that war with Iran is just a matter of time. But is this consensus right? There are good reasons to believe that the Bush administration, while convinced that an Iran capable of producing nuclear weapons represents a major threat to international security, will conclude that military force does not offer a desirable answer. The reason is not that the threat would not warrant the use of military force, but that the military, political, and international context for making such a decision militates against it.

The Iranian nuclear threat is no doubt more real than the Iraqi nuclear threat in 2003. Whereas the "evidence" of an Iraqi nuclear program hinged on disputed information about yellowcake purchases in Niger and the acquisition of aluminum tubes, Tehran has been quite open about its desire to master the technical process of enriching uranium (which constitutes the most critical step in producing a bomb). This reality has led many people to conclude that if President Bush decided to go to war on the basis of flimsy evidence of an Iraqi nuclear program in 2003, then surely he will go to war on the basis of much more substantial evidence of an Iranian program this time around.

Continue reading at The Brookings Institute.

5:55 PM / Editor / permalink 4 comments

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4 Comments:

The only thing that's inevitable is
the inevitable.

By Jayne, at 3:57 AM

That's some scary stuff, particularly because I buy into it. If there is a war, I'll blame Russia and I'll blame the rest of the world for not realizing that Russia has been out there egging on these countries for quite some time, all in an attempt to neutralize the U.S.

By ChinaLawBlog, at 12:23 PM

unfortunately i think war is inevitable, people dont learn and others know nothing but war and pain, best to find a quiet corner of the golbe to hide away from the madness, if the shit hits the fan i'll be living in a cave in dali yunnan.

By petecc, at 6:43 PM

Jayne,

Thank you for that wisdom, and taking the time to leave a comment. I hope all is well with you. I'm sure I owe you an e-mail; forgive me, I will get a round tu it soon.

ChinaLawBlog,

What can I say but that we agree again? I am certain that Russia will carry much of the blame when the radioactive dust hits the fan. And, let's face it, it is going to happen again someday. History will surely record that we were the first to use the big bomb, but not the last.

Weapons are made to be used. So far the world has been very lucky that saner minds have always prevailed when the second and even the third key was in hand to authorize a nuclear launch. We cannot count on luck forever, though.

Thanks for taking the time to leave a comment.

Petecc,

I'm with you. I spent two of the best weeks in my life in Dali, Yunnan. But I do not want to do it the next time in a cave!

Up on top of the mountains might work, though. Nah, that mushroom cloud and its killing dust will get us wherever we are exposed. So, when you come out of that cave, drink a Scotch for me, and then start rebuilding a better world upon the poisonous ashes of this one.

All the best to you all,

Joseph

By Joseph, at 3:43 PM