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Thursday, July 22, 2004

Some Hard Truths on Potential War Across the Taiwan Strait

5:26 PM

I have written here very recently about the need for enlightened civilian discussion of the unthinkable�war�for those of us who make our homes in China, on either side of the Taiwan Strait. There has been a great deal of fine blogging on the subject; just today Phil, the editor of Living in China, and author and proprietor of Disorientated, put up an excellent post, Who Would Win The War? - Analysis, utilizing his experience as a journalist for Jane's Defence Weekly and Jane's Fighting Ships. However, through my eclectic reading habits and esoteric subscriptions to newsletters and periodicals, just today I came into possession of what I would call the most definitive look at the realities facing Taiwan and the United States regarding Taiwan's ability to fight a war against the Mainland.

Yes, it is long, but if you truly are interested in the future of the part of the world where many of us plan to live for some years, I dare say you must read it. Below is a brief summary, and then a link for a PDF download. It takes only a few seconds and you will want to have it on your hard drive for future reference; or you can read it online if you choose. Whichever you do, please read it; it answered more of my questions on this subject than any other one source I have ever encountered.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

DETERRING CONFLICT IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT
The Successes and Failures of Taiwan's Defense Reform and Modernization Program

Michael D. Swaine

Carnegie Paper No. 46

Full Text (PDF)

Summary
The Taiwan Strait is one of the two places in the Asian Pacific where a major war could break out; the other place is the Korean Peninsula. For over fifty years, the People�s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan) have maintained an uneasy peace across the Strait, punctuated by brief periods of limited conflict or by occasional military displays.

This paper examines that program in some detail. The first section looks at the basic objectives of Taiwan�s defense reform and modernization programs and the successes and failures to date. The second section assesses the underlying reasons for those successes and failures. A final section assesses the prospects for the future and the implications for U.S. policy and U.S.�ROC relations.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael D. Swaine is a senior associate in the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment. He specializes in Chinese security and foreign policy, U.S.-China and U.S.-Taiwan defense and security relations, and Asian strategic issues. He is also the author of Reverse Course? The Fragile Turnaround in U.S.-China Relations.(Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief No. 22)

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

5:26 PM / Editor / permalink 2 comments

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2 Comments:

Just to make sure the record's straight, though I worked closely with the Jane's Defence Weekly people and occasionally contributed to the magazine itself, I was actually a staff reporter for Jane's Navy International which is more a specialist/companion magazine. I namedropped the titles since people are more likely to have heard of them.

By Sendover, at 6:34 PM

Phil,

Close enough for me.

By Joseph, at 7:01 PM